A sigh of relief

My son in law, Jesse, is home safe from his tour of duty in Iraq and being put to good use running errands as of last Friday.

My prayers were answered and I’m very grateful.

I’m proud of you, Jesse, and I’m glad you’re home with my grandkids. 

 

I'm begging for your help here …

I’m really having a hard time making up my mind for whom to vote.

Today, I got a “drop piece” placed on my front door by a Republican named Dave Mehlhaff who is running for County Commissioner in District 1 against Democrat Jim Roth.

Here’s a quote from the campaign literature:

Although they are “out” and exercise their right to participate in the Gay Pride Parade each year, the Sodomites prefer to tip-toe through the Oklahoma County neighborhoods not exploiting their “pride” but preferring to focus on the issues.  The truth is, they portray a victim mentality until they mete (sic) up success (as they define it) and then they pound their Sodomite drums with “pride”.  You cant’ (sic) have it both ways.  Either you’re “out” and proud of it or you’re “in” and focus on the issues.

So, what do you think, kids?  Vote for the Sodomite or the idiot?

can't get no SATISFACTION …

I’m restless, discontent and irritable and that’s no place for a recovering alcoholic.

I’m also lethargic, isolating and just about autistic with hypervigilant anxiety and that’s no place for someone who’s chronically depressed.

In other words, it’s a full moon, folks, and John’s werewolf side is coming out.  I can’t stay awake during the day and I can’t go to sleep at night.

(Hum it along with me now, folks … “I saw a werewolf having a pina colada at Trader Vic’s…his hair was Purr-fect.”)

I guess I won’t know until the sun goes down whether I’m homicidal, suicidal or just nuckin’ futs.

Aaaaahhhhhhh-ooooooooohhhhhh!!!!!!!!!

before the fall…

By CATHERINE TSAI

The Associated Press
Thursday, November 2, 2006; 7:27 PM  

  

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. — The leader of the 30 million-member National Association of Evangelicals, a vocal opponent of the drive for same-sex marriage, resigned Thursday after being accused of paying for sex with a man in monthly trysts over the past three years.    

The Rev. Ted Haggard also stepped aside as head of his 14,000-member New Life Church while a church panel investigates, saying he could “not continue to minister under the cloud created by the accusations.”

I’m not willing to just take the word of a bankrupt prostitute about a public figure like this.  Could there be a book/movie/tabloid deal?  Yep, a paycheck could conceivably be behind these allegations. 

Nevertheless, my first thought was how painful it would be to be a closeted gay male with a wife and five kids and an evangelical pulpit.  The self loathing would be crushing. 

My second thought was, of course, political.  There are two races in Colorado U.S. House districts and a governor’s race that have been close and the GOP candidates in them have counted on evangelicals coming to the polls in droves to vote anti-gay-marriage on a state referendum. 

Will this story make those evangelical conservatives more or less likely to vote? 

 I think you can throw all those polls I’ve been pouring over out the window.  It’s a whole new ball game for Colorado.  Since this is an unplanned event and unforseeable, it’s the kind of thing political professionals hate, even though they know such things come along in most high level campaigns.  I’ll bet Karl Rove is wishing he had hair to pull out.  Democrats in Colorado would be smart to simply say Ted Haggard’s troubles aren’t a political issue, but I don’t think conservatives have that option and anything they say will alienate someone and maybe a lot of someones.

The most likely race to be affected, I would think would be Angie Paccione, the Dem, vs. Marilyn Musgrove, GOP incumbent.  Rep. Musgrove only won 51% in ’04 in a district that went 58% for Bush.  She was considered vulnerable, but the Dems pulled back from Paccione when Musgrove’s 4 point poll lead stretched to 10 points. More recent Dem Party polling shows Paccione ahead 3 points.  Now, who knows?

In the neighboring Colorado 7th, the incumbent, Beauprez, left the seat to run against Ritter for governor and is trailing badly.  In the open 7th, Dem Perlmutter has been steadily leading the GOP’s Rick O’Donnell.

I guess another seat that might have a pretty direct effect would be in Nebraska’s House seat left open when coach Tom Osborne decided to make an unsuccessful gubernatorial run.  There’s a smart and good looking Dem named Kleeb that could be a sleeper in that race.

Dems also said before all this that GOP Rep. Jim Ryun is in trouble in Kansas, but I think that’s far fetched.  He is, however, aligned with the evangelicals.

Down New Mexico way, a spunky Dem named Madrid is giving GOP Rep. Heather Wilson a good fight and leads in the polls.

If it’s falling dominoes time, let’s count the worst GOP candidate in the field who is also likely to win, Sali in Idaho, described by his fellow Republican state house speaker as a “frickin’ idiot.” 

To me, this is likely to have a bigger effect than the Foley scandal because of it’s proximity to election day when everyone likely to vote is watching and paying attention.  However, the question is: how it will play out?  Will evangelicals rally against the homosexual agenda of Nancy Pelosi or will they wilt under the weight of the hypocracy of their leadership?

sniff hack ulp

I didn’t go to work today.

I’m home with the double ugly triple inverted Ickky Yuks.

Or, at least I think that’s the technical name for it.

Not to be confused with the “yaks”, which is merely an onomatopoeic substitute for the more precise “technicolor yawn.”

I am queasy, though I’m so empty that a nonchalant dry heave is all I could expect to muster up.

I went to the office to get files to work on, but you know how that goes.

Meanwhile,  I can’t get my contacts in my eyes because they are so red, itchy, scratchy and running.

I can’t breathe through this throbbing proboscis.

My hacking dry cough contributes to the queasiness.

And, most of all, I feel like that coifed Nickles Bills-ite in the black Lexus who almost ran over me yesterday and then just sat crossways in the parking lot while she talked on her cell fucking phone actually DID run over me.  SOMETHING ran over me, of that I’m sure.

I only got 11 hours sleep yesterday, so I’m tired.

shut the fuck up.

 

As Emperor of the world …

As many of you know, I’m often surprised that I have not already been crowned Emperor, philosopher king and benign sovereign of the world.  Confident in my ultimate destiny being fulfilled, I’ve begun to make a list of the things I’ll do once I ascend to the throne.

Today, another new law made the list.

Anyone in reverse gear in their vehicle who is also talking on a cell phone will be immediately beheaded without trial.  Especially if they are pulling out in front of me at Nichols Hills Starbucks.

Earlier laws have included:

No Speedos in size larger than 42″ waist

No Spandex pants larger than ladies’ size 8

No denim skirts shorter than they are wide.

Don’t fuck with me until I’ve had a cup of coffee and a smoke

I feel confident that as the world sees what a deep thinking and benevolent kind of emperor I’d make, that I can get fitted for the purple and gold just any day.

Is this a "wave" election?

Most of the political commentary I read makes it seem like the Democratic Party is on the brink of a huge swing of fortune in their favor.  They call it a “wave” election, like 1994, when the party in power is swept away by a “wave” of voter discontent.

I’ve argued that the GOP has “gamed” the system to prevent just such a thing.

I believe I see the effects of the gaming of the system coming into play that will prevent this from being a “wave” election.

The “countercurrents”, to extend the metaphor, are GOP money, incumbency, gerrymandering, GOP get out the vote superiority, and technical rigging of the balloting.

For most of us, a New Jersey high court ruling that the state’s marriage laws that give hetero couples certain financial and government services advantages over homosexual couples violates constitutional equal protection notions doesn’t seem like a big deal.  It is a big deal, however, to a small part of the GOP evangelical base that hates the idea of “gay marriage.”

Whatever your opinion may be on gay marriage, GOP turnout specialists are using that ruling to microtarget with mailings and phone calls that splinter of the religious right and especially in New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  The thinking is that the mailings and calls will increase GOP turnout in those three states.

So?  Well, the Dems, hoping to take the House, are in dogfights in upper New York state in three races and three House races in Pennsylvania and in the U.S. Senate race in New Jersey.  The mailings and phone calls fly “under the radar” of polls and the televised media.  The fact that they are un-reported or under reported doesn’t change the dynamics of the election towards the GOP.

The polls themselves are also showing some late campaign turnarounds for the GOP in places like Maryland, where the U.S. Sen. candidate Ben Cardin had been in a comfortable lead, but is now within the margin of error against his black GOP rival, Michael Steele.  Same for House races in places like Fla.-16 and New York 24.  For several weeks, top GOP leader Reynolds, caught up in the Foley scandal for not taking more action to protect pages, has been trailing by 5 or more points, but the last two polls shows him leading 4-5 points.   For months, all the movement in the polls has been from more Republican to less Republican to Toss Up to Leans Democrat.  Now, we’re seeing movement in a very few places in the other direction.

News stories that are too technical for most people to pay attention or understand are also showing up indicating that vote rigging is also in place to help the GOP.  GOP Secretaries of State like Ted Strickland (oops. Ken Blackwell, who’s running AGAINST Ted Strickland.  Thanks to alert new registered reader Aberrant Equation.)  in Ohio in ’04 and katherine Harris in Fla. are taking their marching orders seriously and there are already complaints that urban (Democratic) precincts will have too few voting machines and GOP exurban precincts too many.  New laws requiring voters to show voter IDs and proof of citizenship, etc., are being put into place for rigorous enforcement against blacks and Hispanics, which will mean long lines and long delays in Dem leaning areas.

In case you’re not reading between the lines, there are several current stories in the newspapers about campaign ads crossing the line of decency, civility and even the truth.  GOP ads are getting complaints in Tenn., where Corker is playing the race card against Ford in that Senate race, for example.  The GOP has put $100 million — a staggering sum — into attack ads for the last three weeks of the campaign.  One of them has only a ticking clock behind images of Islamic Jihadists threatening to bring terrorism to America and a tag  line over a fiery explosion at the end that says:  “These are the stakes.  Vote Republican.”  It’s an updated version of LBJ’s “daisy” ad of 1964.  It works.

And, lest we forget, gerrymandering also plays a role.  In 1994, when the GOP swept both houses of Congress, there were more than 100 seats “at play” and they “flipped” 54.  This year, there are only 58 seats at play due to gerrymandering.  Even among the seats that are “open”, the odds are against the Dems.  You would think that the seats left open by the resignations of Rep. Foley and Tom DeLay would be natural Democratic Party wins.  The GOP has a write in candidate in Texas and the Republican in Florida has to get past the Foley name on the ballot.  However, those districts are SO Republican, it’s still a tooth and nail fight.

So, I’m sticking by my guns.  The Democratic Party will pick up the 15 they need to take control of the House, but it’ll be a razor thin majority.  My first predictions were that the Dems would only pick up 13-14, so I’ve become more optimistic over the summer.  Democrats will have four more Senators, but not six, and the GOP will keep the Senate. 

 

Sinatra's politics

I’ve mentioned before that I’ve been spending a lot of time at home and a lot of the time I spend at home, I’ve been using to pour over polling data.

As the weather’s become cooler, Sinatra has become more cuddly and will beg to be picked up and curl in my lap for some extra-curricular petting whilst I average polls and color red to blue on a powerpoint map.

Last night, Sinatra interrupted and wanted to talk politics and I thought it was interesting enough to share.

“Belly rub?” Sinatra said.  It’s what he calls me, he doesn’t know my name.  It’s confusing sometimes because I don’t know if he wants my attention or if he actually wants a belly rub.  “Belly rub?”, he said, as I rubbed his belly, giving me a clue that he actually wanted to talk.

“What is it, Sinatra?”

“I want to vote against George Bush,” he said.

“I don’t think you can do that, Sinatra.  He’s not on the ballot this year,” I told him.  I didn’t want to tell him that cats can’t vote, he’d have been offended and scratched me.

“Well, I want to vote for some Democrat,” he said.

“Why?” I reasonably asked, forgetting for the moment that I was actually having a conversation with a cat.

“Well, didn’t you tell me the United States has the best military in the world?”

“Yes.  We have the best of everything.  We have the most powerful army, navy and air force.  We spend more on our military than the whole rest of the world combined,” I told him.

“Isn’t Jesse in the army?”, Sinatra asked.  Sinatra knows that my son-in-law, Jesse, has been in Iraq and is a captain in the artillary, so I knew this was just a set-up, but sometimes Sinatra’s memory about people isn’t so good, so it could also have been an honest question. 

“Yes,” I said.  “He just came out and we expect him home any time.”

“He was a good soldier, wasn’t he?”

“Of course, Sinatra.  We have a few soldiers who aren’t so good, but most of them are very good and Jesse is one of the very good ones.”

“So, we have good soldiers, too, don’t we?”

“Yes,” I said.  “All my life, I’ve been told how good a job our military does and how good the soldiers are and I guess they actually are pretty good.”

“Is the Iraq insurgency have bigger guns?”

“That’s a strange question, Sinatra.  No, they don’t have bigger guns, we have bigger guns.”

“Do they have better planes?”

“Sinatra, they don’t have any planes at all.”

“Do they have bigger bombs?”

“No, we have the biggest bombs of anyone in the world.  Our bombs are even smart.”

“Do they have a better navy?”

“No.  This is getting boring, Sinatra.  They don’t have any navy at all.”

“I guess their soldiers are better than Jesse and the other good soldiers,” he said, rolling over for a stroke behind the ears.

“No, Sinatra, they don’t have better soldiers.”

“Is it the American troops’ fault that we’re losing in Iraq?”

“Of course not, Sinatra.  No.”

“Who’s in charge of the army, belly rub?” he asked, once again turning so I could stroke his expanding girth.

“Well, Sinatra, I guess President Bush is the commander in chief and he’s in charge of the Army.”

“That’s why I want to vote for a Democrat, belly rub.”

He jumped down and strutted off in that “I-used-to-have-big-furry-balls” bowlegged, self satisfied way of his, having made his point.