Labor Day is the time honored and traditional start of the modern election campaign.  The primaries and runoffs are over and the issues are pretty much set.  It’s two months, 60 days to the election and people are finished with summer vacation and ready to pay attention.

So, let’s look at the state of the race and make some predictions.

All the pundits are all about whether there will be a sea change from the GOP to the Dems because, historically, presidents in their second terms lose badly at this stage of the game.

And, indeed, despite gerrymandering and incumbency and all the other advantages a party has when they control all the levers of power, there are about 40 races that will be competitive in the House and about 6-8 in the Senate.  That’s actually a tiny number.  In 1994, when the GOP grabbed power from the Dems, there were over 100 competitive races in the House.  That’s what all the Tom Delay redistricting fight in Texas was all about:  changing the rules of the game while they held the power to “fix” this election by reducing the number of competitive seats.

At present, Dems could nationally win 60-65% of the vote and pick up no more than 8 seats.

This is because in Blue States the vote might be overwhelming, but not distributed in a way that will change the outcome in some of the “purple” 40 districts.

So, if the election were held today, the so-called non-partisan pollsters say the Dems will pick up about 20 house seats and 4-5 Senators (not enough to change power in the upper chamber).

That will not be the outcome in November.

We are on the cusp of the most vituperous and negative campaign ever in history when regarded nationwide.

For the next two months, GOP candidates in Indiana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Montana and elsewhere will blatently call Democrats villainous traitors ready to appease terrorists.  They have the money to make that charge stick for a large number of relatively uninformed and independent voters.

Because the president himself will not be on the ballot, the turnout, the people who actually vote, will be smaller than in 2004 (or 2008 for that matter).  Thus, the relatively small number of far right evangelical “moral issue” voters will have a greater effect than if everyone voted.

Because the turnout will be smaller, the GOP’s advantage in grassroots turnout capacity generally will have a bigger effect than in a larger turnout race.

Most of us will not see the scare tactics and lies that will be put in the mailboxes and email slots and on talk radio to get the “faithful” to the polls come November.  They will shake the Hillary boogieman at them along with the Osama 9/11 lie that ties Iraq to our national tragedy.

Whether we like it or not, it will work with millions of voters.

Don’t kid yourself about some other “advantages” held by the GOP.  One of the biggest that comes to mind is as close as the next intersection.  You must have noticed that gasoline prices have backed off the $3.00/gal heights and gone down to $2.40/gal, the price I paid at the local 7-11 yesterday.  DO YOU REALLY THINK THIS IS A COINCIDENCE?  Voter anger with Bush and the GOP fueled by high gasoline prices?  Well, what would Halliburton and Exxon do for their buddies in the White House?  Billions are at stake.  These corporations are not about right/wrong or even politics, they are about money — the very loong green.  I don’t even think it’s a conspiracy.  I don’t think anyone had to say a word.  Those guys are smart enough not to have to be told what to do.  They are “innocently” acting in their own long term self interest.  end of story.

So, here’s how I think it will go:

In the Senate, the Dems will pick up no more than 4 seats, not enough to change the majority, but enough to make it tight and uncomfortable.  The best news we may get in the Senate is the possible breakthrough upset of incumbent Pa. Sen. Rick Santorum.

In the House, about the same.  I think Dems will fall short of the 15 needed for a Speaker Pelosi — picking up maybe 12-14 seats, mostly in Ohio, Pennsylvania and maybe Indiana.  Dem seats that might have been picked up in California will be stymied by Arnie’s newfound interest in the environment that makes it more difficult for the Dem candidate, Angelides, to sweep in new ones on the West Coast. 

And, you know, it doesn’t really matter in some respects because so many Dem officeholders are Repubs in disguise and vote with the GOP on various issues like the estate tax.

Money is the mother’s milk of politics.  The GOP will outspend the Dems over the next 60 days in a way that stuns the mind.

Here in Oklahoma, for example, in any “normal” election, an open house seat in the 5th District would be a real race.  The national party would throw money at such a race.  This time, there isn’t enough money to go around and Mary Fallin will outspend Dr. Hunter by many multiples.  By party registration, Democrats are more than competitive, they have the advantage in the 5th District.  By actual voting in the ’04 election, GOP has a 60-40 advantage.  Rham Emanuel, the Dem in charge of national party money allocation, will not bother with even thinking about Oklahoma — he’ll concentrate elsewhere.  The Okla. 5th is not one of the 40 seats pollsters consider competitive.  Might as well crown that queen now.

so, my fellow lefties, don’t get your hopes up too high, you’ll just be more jaded and cynical in the fall if you do.