New polling came in over the weekend that reflects the Foley scandal in various races and it’s astounding.  Many more races became competitive for the Democrats and the GOP is being walloped in formerly tossup races.

It’s hard to tell whether this effect will stay in place over the next three weeks until election day, absent another news story to drive the election returns, because the GOP will be spending tens of millions on negative ads and have their other institutional advantages (gerrymandering, incumbency, vote fraud, e.g.) and their legendary advantage in getting voters to actually vote.

News stories say Rove and Bush are still confident of retaining control over Congress and have no plans in place for any other outcome.

Meanwhile, the national GOP election committees have begun to re-allocate funds.  Mike DeWine in Ohio, for example, with a $4.5 million warchest for the last three weeks will have to go without national backing because national money is going to go to shore up George Allen in Virginia.  Allen had enjoyed a 7 percent lead in the polls in his race against former Reagan Navy Secretary turned antiwar activist Democrat Webb, but is now locked in a statistical tie.  The GOP is also going to focus on Missouri and Tennessee, where Dems hold very slim leads, within the margin of error of the polls.  Bush himself will be making at least two trips to Nashville and Chattanooga in the final days of this election cycle.  The GOP has to win one of the two in Mo. and TN and hold onto Va. to keep hold of the Senate but the Dems must sweep to take the Senate.

On the House side, it’s even more problematic.  I’m just guessing, but it looks like Foley didn’t make anyone change their mind, but it crystallized a lot of thinking for independents and undecideds and moved them solidly into the Dem category.  Dozens of races show movement toward the Democratic candidates and wholesale categories of races have moved from “tossups” to “lean Dem” and from “lean Rep.” into tossups.  Late last week, I doubted if the Dems could take the 12 or 13 necessary races out of 18 tossups to take over the House.  The polls over the weekend show the Dems getting 15 of those 18 and moving another 9 races  into the tossup category that had been safely GOP seats.  Local reporting in New York state, for example, three races I was watching closely in upstate New York included, look like a Dem sweep beneath the coattails of the very popular Hillary and governor candidate Eliot Spitzer.  Pennsylvania and Ohio Republican parties seem to be imploding and bleeding red votes into blue Democrats.  Even such safe Republican seats as Chris Shays in Conn. and Clay Shaw in Florida are no longer good bets.  Two of the three tossup Indiana races I’ve been watching turned into seats the Democrats can consider theirs to lose and the one that was marginally GOP is now marginally Dem. 

It won’t stay like this.  All elections tighten up as it gets closer to election day.  The GOP onslaught of negative ads starts today and will have its effect.  The GOP will still outperform the polls.  The ability to manipulate successfully a small turnout election is still within the grasp of the GOP.

Nevertheless, the gap has now narrowed and I’m changing my prediction slightly.  In the Senate, it will be 51-49 GOP, a net gain of another Dem seat from my earlier thinking.  In the House, it finally looks like the much ballyhooed Dem takeover, but not the sea change i’ve seen written about:  Dems 220, GOP 215.