COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. — The leader of the 30 million-member National Association of Evangelicals, a vocal opponent of the drive for same-sex marriage, resigned Thursday after being accused of paying for sex with a man in monthly trysts over the past three years.    

The Rev. Ted Haggard also stepped aside as head of his 14,000-member New Life Church while a church panel investigates, saying he could “not continue to minister under the cloud created by the accusations.”

I’m not willing to just take the word of a bankrupt prostitute about a public figure like this.  Could there be a book/movie/tabloid deal?  Yep, a paycheck could conceivably be behind these allegations. 

Nevertheless, my first thought was how painful it would be to be a closeted gay male with a wife and five kids and an evangelical pulpit.  The self loathing would be crushing. 

My second thought was, of course, political.  There are two races in Colorado U.S. House districts and a governor’s race that have been close and the GOP candidates in them have counted on evangelicals coming to the polls in droves to vote anti-gay-marriage on a state referendum. 

Will this story make those evangelical conservatives more or less likely to vote? 

 I think you can throw all those polls I’ve been pouring over out the window.  It’s a whole new ball game for Colorado.  Since this is an unplanned event and unforseeable, it’s the kind of thing political professionals hate, even though they know such things come along in most high level campaigns.  I’ll bet Karl Rove is wishing he had hair to pull out.  Democrats in Colorado would be smart to simply say Ted Haggard’s troubles aren’t a political issue, but I don’t think conservatives have that option and anything they say will alienate someone and maybe a lot of someones.

The most likely race to be affected, I would think would be Angie Paccione, the Dem, vs. Marilyn Musgrove, GOP incumbent.  Rep. Musgrove only won 51% in ’04 in a district that went 58% for Bush.  She was considered vulnerable, but the Dems pulled back from Paccione when Musgrove’s 4 point poll lead stretched to 10 points. More recent Dem Party polling shows Paccione ahead 3 points.  Now, who knows?

In the neighboring Colorado 7th, the incumbent, Beauprez, left the seat to run against Ritter for governor and is trailing badly.  In the open 7th, Dem Perlmutter has been steadily leading the GOP’s Rick O’Donnell.

I guess another seat that might have a pretty direct effect would be in Nebraska’s House seat left open when coach Tom Osborne decided to make an unsuccessful gubernatorial run.  There’s a smart and good looking Dem named Kleeb that could be a sleeper in that race.

Dems also said before all this that GOP Rep. Jim Ryun is in trouble in Kansas, but I think that’s far fetched.  He is, however, aligned with the evangelicals.

Down New Mexico way, a spunky Dem named Madrid is giving GOP Rep. Heather Wilson a good fight and leads in the polls.

If it’s falling dominoes time, let’s count the worst GOP candidate in the field who is also likely to win, Sali in Idaho, described by his fellow Republican state house speaker as a “frickin’ idiot.” 

To me, this is likely to have a bigger effect than the Foley scandal because of it’s proximity to election day when everyone likely to vote is watching and paying attention.  However, the question is: how it will play out?  Will evangelicals rally against the homosexual agenda of Nancy Pelosi or will they wilt under the weight of the hypocracy of their leadership?