Gay, conservative, Republican, Ex-Brit, Catholic, and Atlantic Magazine contributor and blogger, I’m a big fan of Andrew Sullivan and read him every day. He’s smart and funny comes at the world from almost exactly 180 degrees from me. He writes a piece in his blog about it being clear that Hillary isn’t really going to be president, but that it’s more like Bill’s really running for a third term. Probably nonsense, but interesting speculation.

I just wonder if I’m the only one old enough and wonky enough to remember Lurleen Wallace, the wife of Gov. George Wallace of Alabama, who ran as a strawman for the segregationist Independent Party candidate of the 60s.

Just a thought.

Since I’m bringing in European observers, I also read Spiegal Online, a German publication, at the behest of John X with the Viennese Squeeze. Their Washington, D.C., writer opines that it’s The End of Obama’s Dream. He may be right, but I think his obit is a tad premature. I believe the German writer is making a common European mistake about the U.S., which is that he doesn’t yet quite have his mind around how big a place this is. He looks at N.Y., N.J., and California, just as I have below, and concluded that Obama is about to go under a Super Tuesday tidal wave of blue collar whites, older women and Hispanics. However, those are only the biggest jewels. There are 22 states on Feb. 5, and some of those states include Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas Oklahoma, Nebraska. With the exception of Arkansas, those states are tough for the former First Lady. The fact that ALL those states are porportional voting instead of “winner takes all” with respect to party delegates, makes prognostication problematic and will likely mean that it’ll be awhile before we really know the results of that Tuesday. Remember that in Nevada, Hillary won by 6 percentage points but got one less delegate than Obama. There will be stuff like that on Super Tuesday. It’s possible to win big in an urban area of a state, therefore carrying the popular vote statewide, but to lose barely in all the surrounding rural congressional districts and the “loser” gets more delegates. Note that all the smaller states I named are also “red” states: states that elected Bush and have GOP holders of most of the major political offices. Part of Sen. Clinton’s problem on Super Tuesday is that even the Democrats in those states have been infected with the GOP anti-Hillary kool-aide because they’ve all been beaten over the head with Hillary by the Repuglithugs for 16 years. Also, for most of the states that come up Feb. 5, I don’t have very reliable polling, nor very much polling and, as always, a very high “undecided”. By the way, Thanks, “B”, for getting me hooked up with this German rag, I enjoy reading it.

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