Let’s talk about the electoral college, since that’s where presidential elections are won and lost.
According to RealClearPolitics, which aggregates polls and asigns a poll number that averages polls, Obama leads in states with 238 electoral votes while McCain leads in states with 190 electoral votes and there are 11 “toss up” states that will be the “battleground” in November.
That sounds pretty good for Obama, to lead and all despite being pretty close in the overall vote.
However,when you look at the 11 “toss ups”, Obama has the uphill road and McCain the downhill slide in all of them.
The 11 “toss up” states with electoral votes in parentheses are:
Ohio (20), Mich. (17), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Colorado (9), New Hamp. (4), N.M. (5) and Nev. (5).
There are no current polls for three of those states, New MX, Colo., and Missouri. Missouri was Bush +7.2 in ’04, N.M. was Bush +0.7 and Colorado was Bush +4.7. I hear a lot of talk about N.M. and Colorado “flipping” blue and maybe that’s true, but they were all three red the last presidential election.
Two of the eleven states went for Kerry in ‘o4. They were Michigan, +3.4, and N.H., +1.3. However, McCain leads the RPG poll of poll in both those states, by +1.6 in Mich. and by +1.4 in N.H.
Of the remaining six states, Obama leads only in Ohio, +1.3, in a state that was Bush +2.0 in ’04.
Indiana went for Bush by +20.4 and McCain leads there by +2.0 and North Carolina was +12.4 for Bush and McCain leads there by +4.5.
In Virginia, which Bush carried by +8.2, McCain leads by +1.3 and in Nevada, carried by Bush +2.6, McCain leads by a point.
The next two closest states are Iowa (7), carried by Bush +0.7, with Obama leading by +8.0, and Florida (27), carried by Bush +5.0, with McCain leading by +8.3.
I conclude that Obama is a significant underdog and must climb over the next 5 months while McCain’s task is to consolidate as the frontrunner in the swing states. Mitt Romney as VP for McCain would appear to make the GOP a much more likely winner by bringing Michigan into the red zone and taking it out of play. Obama’s choice is less clear.
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