Even trying to factor in the weight I should give to my own bias for Obama over McCain, I still think it was jarring upon seeing McCain’s “Obama is a celebrity” ad immediately after the USA surprisingly won the gold over France in the 4X100, preserving Mike Phelps’ chance for 8 gold, a uniquely patriotic moment for even a leftist like me.

A “negative” ad at that particular time just really struck me as out of place.

If a political ad during the Olympics can be appropriate, it seems like Obama’s “hands” ad about energy strikes a decent tone. By contrast, it makes it seem to me like McCain’s being a jerk.

The polls are actually much more stable than the Dow; for weeks now, Obama’s been +/- 1 of 47 percent and McCain’s been +/- 2 of 42 percent. The electoral vote state maps have also been fairly stable, but seem to be moving Obama’s way since May with 11 states in “toss up” status, by which I mean within 4% in the average of polls taken in each state.

If you think about it, 47-43 means that about 1-2% are voting for Barr or Nader and about 8 percent are waiting for the vice presidential choices, conventions and the three debates. This wait-and-see undecided voter doesn’t seem unreasonable by any means.

One caveat: the more I study the polls this year, the less confidence I have in them. I won’t bore you with the reasons, but I don’t expect polls to be predictive this election in the presidential arena. I believe there is a much higher margin of error this year than the statistics admit. I think Obama’s ahead right now, but that’s gut as much as anything, and I think no one can say with certainty any more than that.

On a related political note, I got an email from the Obama campaign promising to tell me the vice presidential pick “first” — by email or text and not through the news media. Good gimmick and also plays up the McCain campaign’s ignorance of the importance of such means of communication. Also harvests zillions of email addresses and hard-to-get cell phone numbers. A plea for money could not be far behind. They even have a form for you to put 10 folks from your address book on their lists. Work it, baby. They don’t miss a trick. iPhones and Blackberries will whirr and beep.

As I’ve said before, I like Richardson as a choice. I think he could help put Texas in play. I like Bayh, I would be cool with Hillary even though I think it’s a dumb pick, I don’t like Biden and I’m cooling towards Tim Kaine of VA. I think McCaskill or Sibelius are disasters. If he would do it, Al Gore would seal the deal for the Dems.

OK, I’ve got that off my chest.

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