RealClearPolitics.com average of polls shows Obama leading by 7.0 points, 49.9% to McCain’s 42.9%.
Pollster.com has very similar results, a 7.0% spread at 50.1 for Obama and 43.1 for McCain:
Both Pollster and RCP show Obama with sure leads in 286 electoral votes. RCP has McCain with 160 and Pollster shows the Arizonan with 157 EVs, the difference being that Pollster shows Montana as a “tossup” with McCain leading by 3.7% and RCP shows Montana as McCain’s by 5.6%. The two sites show the following states as undecided:
State RCP Pollster
FL O+1.5 O+2.3
IN M+3.8 M+3.5
OH O+2.5 O+1.2
NV O+3.3 O+3.2
NC O+2.0 O+3.0
MO O+2.7 O+1.6
Pollster also shows North Dakota as a tossup at O+3.6, but doesn’t seem to have adjusted the EV ratings because the polling seems “sparse” and they give the state a lean McCain rating based on previous voting history.
You can see more electoral vote tallies at:
electoral-vote.com and at my personal favorite polling site, fivethirtyeight.com, which is a site that uses polling — a “snapshot” of voters at the time the poll is taken — to try to predict the outcome using demographic patters, historical voting patterns, voter registration patterns, etc. 538’s present statistical modeling predicts 344.3 electoral votes for Obama, 193.7 for McCain; Obama wins presidency, 93.5% to McCain 6.5% out of 10,000 simulations; and, Obama with 51.8% of the popular votes and McCain with 46.8%.
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