Shut the fuck up.

It wasn’t enough that you booted the ’04 election, you’ve got to fuck up this one, too?

Shut the fuck up.

Most of the political commentary I read makes it seem like the Democratic Party is on the brink of a huge swing of fortune in their favor.  They call it a “wave” election, like 1994, when the party in power is swept away by a “wave” of voter discontent.

I’ve argued that the GOP has “gamed” the system to prevent just such a thing.

I believe I see the effects of the gaming of the system coming into play that will prevent this from being a “wave” election.

The “countercurrents”, to extend the metaphor, are GOP money, incumbency, gerrymandering, GOP get out the vote superiority, and technical rigging of the balloting.

For most of us, a New Jersey high court ruling that the state’s marriage laws that give hetero couples certain financial and government services advantages over homosexual couples violates constitutional equal protection notions doesn’t seem like a big deal.  It is a big deal, however, to a small part of the GOP evangelical base that hates the idea of “gay marriage.”

Whatever your opinion may be on gay marriage, GOP turnout specialists are using that ruling to microtarget with mailings and phone calls that splinter of the religious right and especially in New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  The thinking is that the mailings and calls will increase GOP turnout in those three states.

So?  Well, the Dems, hoping to take the House, are in dogfights in upper New York state in three races and three House races in Pennsylvania and in the U.S. Senate race in New Jersey.  The mailings and phone calls fly “under the radar” of polls and the televised media.  The fact that they are un-reported or under reported doesn’t change the dynamics of the election towards the GOP.

The polls themselves are also showing some late campaign turnarounds for the GOP in places like Maryland, where the U.S. Sen. candidate Ben Cardin had been in a comfortable lead, but is now within the margin of error against his black GOP rival, Michael Steele.  Same for House races in places like Fla.-16 and New York 24.  For several weeks, top GOP leader Reynolds, caught up in the Foley scandal for not taking more action to protect pages, has been trailing by 5 or more points, but the last two polls shows him leading 4-5 points.   For months, all the movement in the polls has been from more Republican to less Republican to Toss Up to Leans Democrat.  Now, we’re seeing movement in a very few places in the other direction.

News stories that are too technical for most people to pay attention or understand are also showing up indicating that vote rigging is also in place to help the GOP.  GOP Secretaries of State like Ted Strickland (oops. Ken Blackwell, who’s running AGAINST Ted Strickland.  Thanks to alert new registered reader Aberrant Equation.)  in Ohio in ’04 and katherine Harris in Fla. are taking their marching orders seriously and there are already complaints that urban (Democratic) precincts will have too few voting machines and GOP exurban precincts too many.  New laws requiring voters to show voter IDs and proof of citizenship, etc., are being put into place for rigorous enforcement against blacks and Hispanics, which will mean long lines and long delays in Dem leaning areas.

In case you’re not reading between the lines, there are several current stories in the newspapers about campaign ads crossing the line of decency, civility and even the truth.  GOP ads are getting complaints in Tenn., where Corker is playing the race card against Ford in that Senate race, for example.  The GOP has put $100 million — a staggering sum — into attack ads for the last three weeks of the campaign.  One of them has only a ticking clock behind images of Islamic Jihadists threatening to bring terrorism to America and a tag  line over a fiery explosion at the end that says:  “These are the stakes.  Vote Republican.”  It’s an updated version of LBJ’s “daisy” ad of 1964.  It works.

And, lest we forget, gerrymandering also plays a role.  In 1994, when the GOP swept both houses of Congress, there were more than 100 seats “at play” and they “flipped” 54.  This year, there are only 58 seats at play due to gerrymandering.  Even among the seats that are “open”, the odds are against the Dems.  You would think that the seats left open by the resignations of Rep. Foley and Tom DeLay would be natural Democratic Party wins.  The GOP has a write in candidate in Texas and the Republican in Florida has to get past the Foley name on the ballot.  However, those districts are SO Republican, it’s still a tooth and nail fight.

So, I’m sticking by my guns.  The Democratic Party will pick up the 15 they need to take control of the House, but it’ll be a razor thin majority.  My first predictions were that the Dems would only pick up 13-14, so I’ve become more optimistic over the summer.  Democrats will have four more Senators, but not six, and the GOP will keep the Senate. 

Most of you know that I’m an old-style lefty from the 60s and that I’m a yellow dog Democrat.  I vote the rooster, in the archaic early 20th Century way of saying it in Oklahoma (the rooster is the official insignia of the Oklahoma Democratic Party and was used when literacy wasn’t what it is today and all we could do was read icons, kinda like on the computer screens where people type “u” when they mean “you” … er …).

And I WANT the Dems to prevail on Election Day.

Charlie Cook, a respected bipartisan political polls reader expert type commentator guy, is talking in his latest (Oct. 17) column about a turnaround of 30-40 House seats from GOP to Dem and a 50-50 split or 51-49 for the Dems in the Senate.

Maybe.

I’d like for that to be true.

I want that to be true.

I think it would be good for the country if that were true.

I just don’t think it’s going to come out that way.

I look at the poll numbers available to me and the environment of the polls (how did those districts vote in the presidential election and/or last midterm elections) and who took the polls and how (person to person or by phone or by robo-call) and I come up with much more conservative numbers.

Yeah, I can see how it’s possible that Charlie Cook could be right. 

I just have more caution about interpreting what’s going on.

I still think the GOP will retain the Senate.  A 50-50 split would surprise me and set up what I think would be an interesting kabuki play about partisanship and the “go fuck yourself” vice president.  I don’t see it.  The Dems will pick up seats, to be sure, but they will not, in my opinion, sweep. 

I still think the Dems will take the House.  I think the Dems are going to pick up about 20-22 seats.  Not 30-50.  I think when you add up all the votes for Democratic House candidates and all the votes for GOP candidates, the Dems will have 55-57% of the votes.  In another election, like the one in ’94 when the GOP swept away many years of Democratic Party rule, that would mean many more seats.  This year, the GOP just got through redrawing and redistricting in several states.  They locked in 5-7 additional seats in Texas alone.  It was unfair and despite Supreme Court rulings otherwise, I think unconstitutional.  Whether that is true or not, it was certainly important and this year’s election shows why.

In my opinion, the projection of Cook and others like him do not adequately take into account the push back of $100 million in GOP attack ads over the next three weeks.

That’s because the effects of those ads are not yet showing up in polls.

If you just look at the polls that are out there and try to use an averaging out to take out the bias of Dem polls and GOP polls and good polls and bad polls, you come up with Charlie Cook’s conclusion.  The trend lines all go that direction.  The “wrong track-right track” polls and generic party preference polls also go that direction.  That’s good evidence for a persuasive case, and more than enough good evidence for a news column or a brief TV commentary.

From the perspective of someone who’s been inside a couple of campaigns, those seem like blunt instruments compared to the sharp pencils Karl Rove is using.  I think he’s looking at those specific ad buys in specific markets and some under the radar closely targeted “smart bomb” mailers and phone bank calls and sees a chance to hold the Dems to no more than 15-17 seats and maybe save both the House and the Senate.

I also think there are some Republican incumbents who have distanced themselves from the White House who will regret the hell out of that decision next January because Rove and Bush will still have lots of power to reward and punish.

To my fellow left wing Democrats:  just remember that we won both in 2000 and 2004 and that the GOP stole the elections.  Do you think they’ve reformed?

Federal investigators targeted four locations near Philadelphia, including the home of Karen Weldon, and two properties in Jacksonville, FBI spokesman Debbie Weierman said.

Weierman declined to elaborate. But another federal law enforcement official said the probe focused on whether the congressman used improper influence to steer business to his daughter and her partner, Charles Sexton.

The official, who has been briefed on aspects of the investigation, was not authorized to comment publicly on the inquiry. The congressman’s properties were not among the locations searched, the official said.

At a campaign stop near Philadelphia where Weldon is in a tight re-election race against Democrat Joe Sestak, the congressman denied any wrongdoing and questioned the timing of the investigation.

“What I find ironic, if there is an investigation, is that no one would tell me until three weeks before the election. This incident was 2½ years ago,” he told the Associated Press. “I’ve never helped my daughter get anything. My kids are qualified on their own.”

In 2004, a liberal watchdog group, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, called on the Justice Department to examine whether Weldon violated federal law by assisting companies that hired his daughter as a lobbyist.

Laocoon’s note:  Yeah, everything is timing and everything is political at this time, Rep. Weldon.  The problem is that it’s hard to imagine some FBI supervisor timing this out because it’s so well known how much Bush’s Bureau loves to make official moves to favor some Democrat against a senior GOP House committee chairman.  Those FBI agents and supervisors, wacky guys that they are, can’t wait to give a hand to a looney, left-wing … er, ah … turns out the Democrat, Joe Sestak, is a retired Admiral.  Well, you get my drift, anyway.

New polling came in over the weekend that reflects the Foley scandal in various races and it’s astounding.  Many more races became competitive for the Democrats and the GOP is being walloped in formerly tossup races.

It’s hard to tell whether this effect will stay in place over the next three weeks until election day, absent another news story to drive the election returns, because the GOP will be spending tens of millions on negative ads and have their other institutional advantages (gerrymandering, incumbency, vote fraud, e.g.) and their legendary advantage in getting voters to actually vote.

News stories say Rove and Bush are still confident of retaining control over Congress and have no plans in place for any other outcome.

Meanwhile, the national GOP election committees have begun to re-allocate funds.  Mike DeWine in Ohio, for example, with a $4.5 million warchest for the last three weeks will have to go without national backing because national money is going to go to shore up George Allen in Virginia.  Allen had enjoyed a 7 percent lead in the polls in his race against former Reagan Navy Secretary turned antiwar activist Democrat Webb, but is now locked in a statistical tie.  The GOP is also going to focus on Missouri and Tennessee, where Dems hold very slim leads, within the margin of error of the polls.  Bush himself will be making at least two trips to Nashville and Chattanooga in the final days of this election cycle.  The GOP has to win one of the two in Mo. and TN and hold onto Va. to keep hold of the Senate but the Dems must sweep to take the Senate.

On the House side, it’s even more problematic.  I’m just guessing, but it looks like Foley didn’t make anyone change their mind, but it crystallized a lot of thinking for independents and undecideds and moved them solidly into the Dem category.  Dozens of races show movement toward the Democratic candidates and wholesale categories of races have moved from “tossups” to “lean Dem” and from “lean Rep.” into tossups.  Late last week, I doubted if the Dems could take the 12 or 13 necessary races out of 18 tossups to take over the House.  The polls over the weekend show the Dems getting 15 of those 18 and moving another 9 races  into the tossup category that had been safely GOP seats.  Local reporting in New York state, for example, three races I was watching closely in upstate New York included, look like a Dem sweep beneath the coattails of the very popular Hillary and governor candidate Eliot Spitzer.  Pennsylvania and Ohio Republican parties seem to be imploding and bleeding red votes into blue Democrats.  Even such safe Republican seats as Chris Shays in Conn. and Clay Shaw in Florida are no longer good bets.  Two of the three tossup Indiana races I’ve been watching turned into seats the Democrats can consider theirs to lose and the one that was marginally GOP is now marginally Dem. 

It won’t stay like this.  All elections tighten up as it gets closer to election day.  The GOP onslaught of negative ads starts today and will have its effect.  The GOP will still outperform the polls.  The ability to manipulate successfully a small turnout election is still within the grasp of the GOP.

Nevertheless, the gap has now narrowed and I’m changing my prediction slightly.  In the Senate, it will be 51-49 GOP, a net gain of another Dem seat from my earlier thinking.  In the House, it finally looks like the much ballyhooed Dem takeover, but not the sea change i’ve seen written about:  Dems 220, GOP 215. 

I’ll make this brief.

there’s been only one nationally recognized as reliable poll published about Oklahoma politics since the Runoff Election on Aug. 25.  Rasmusson Poll shows Gov. Henry at 55% and Rep. Istook at 33%.

This contrasts with their Aug. 28 poll when it was 60-34 Henry over Istook.

Polls are not all that good at predicting, in my opinion, but they are wonderful tools for seeing trends and identifying “hot button” issues that can then be manipulated. 

Here, it seems clear that Istook was farther behind on Aug. 28 because he had no primary or runoff opponent and had not been on the TV while Brad Henry, although facing only nominal opposition, had been visible both as an incumbent and with some small TV exposure.  Now, some of Henry’s drop can be seen as apathy growing between elections, the effect of Istook looking for and pointing out “negatives”, and other reasons can be imagined.  What seems less likely to me is that Istook’s numbers are unchanged.  No growth despite Henry’s fall. 

As an interesting subtext, Istook must be pretty careful about putting out “negatives” about Henry because the response will be all corruption-Ambramoff-scandal-dirty-money all the time.  Ole’ Ernie can lose to Brad and still be in the running in the U.S. Senate race in two years.  But, if he’s discredited as corrupt, it’s a career killer.  Ernie is also facing a candidate who can use his incumbency to set the agenda — how about a proposal to bring the Legislature into special session to pass ethics rules?

What would you tell Ernest to do about his campaign if you were a “downballot” candidate?  How about if you’re Mary Fallin? 

I think I’d tell him to take his whippin’ like a man and work just to get out the Repub vote along with the other candidates and even if he loses, that we’ll stand up for him in a Senate showdown within the party and everyone knows Inhofe is on a path to retire.

I said short and then wrote more than anyone cares about.  C U Soon